Since the return of Nawaz Sharif, the popularity gap between PTI and PMLN is rapidly decreasing and the situation in this regard has reached where it was at the time of the 2018 elections. This situation is despite the fact that one month is left and no campaign has started for the general elections till now.
A recent survey shows that if the PTI contests the elections with its own symbol, the contest is likely to be very tough as, contrary to the general perception in the social and traditional media, the PMLN has significantly regained its lost ground. Even in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the competition will not be easy.
In a survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan, it was reported that the PTI’s popularity was 15 percent higher than the PMLN’s a week before Nawaz Sharif’s visit to Lahore.
According to the latest survey conducted between December 15 and January 7, this gap has now narrowed to four percent.
In the survey, opinions were obtained from five thousand people from all over the country. Those who said they would vote for PTI gave this opinion because they wanted to vote for Bala. The above opinion regarding shrinking gap is about Punjab. In the three regions of the largest province, South, Central and West Punjab, the difference in popularity is almost negligible as it is just one to two percent. Since the pollsters also factored in a margin of error of two to three percent, the difference is negligible.
However, in North Punjab, PTI’s popularity is 10% higher than that of the Non-League. This region includes most of the districts of Rawalpindi region. This region is also called the Marshall Belt because the majority of army recruits are from this region.
Pollsters generally believe that the military, both serving and retired, remains largely politically loyal to their institution, as evidenced by a survey conducted a few months ago.
In the survey, the people of this region are being considered counter-balanced and that is the reason why PTI is leading here. It is also a fact that PTI is a popular party in all ranks.
Talking about the pulse of Punjab, this is proved in another survey. Institute of Public Opinion Research (IPOR) Executive Director Tariq Junaid says that the seats won by the Non-League in 2018 are largely intact.
His organization is currently conducting surveys in various constituencies along with the Non-League to determine the best candidates for the elections.
Tariq Junaid said that in Lahore and Gujranwala division, PMLN will probably retain the seats won in 2018.
Bilal Gilani, executive director of Gallup Pakistan, also agrees that the PTI is facing some difficulties in the current situation and this situation may have an impact on the voters.
He said that PTI’s current level of popularity might not win it in the elections, especially when the elections are a month away. He said that in 2018 both the parties got almost equal number of votes. The situation was changed by adding electables from South Punjab.